Price/market share simulation for new products



With the help of an extensive shopper study in the barbecue category, a customer wants to gain knowledge in order to optimise his franchise business.

The aim of the study is to determine price potential and market share potential for existing products as well as prospective new products.



  • How willing are shoppers to pay for the customer's products?
  • Which market shares can be tapped with the help of different new products?
  • What preferences are there for the features of different products and how are these expressed?
  • How do the new optimal prices differ from the current price points, and what effect do these differences have on the current market share?


Choice-based conjoint analysis

  • N = 1,500 subjects and a total of 69 choice sets
  • Calculation of willingness to pay and analysis of the results based on hierarchical Bayesian models with a total of 120 million calculations

Results (extract)


  • The conjoint analysis revealed the shoppers' detailed preferences for product features
  • Through market simulations of five different categories (meat, bratwurst, barbecue sauces, salt and spices), optimal prices were determined for a total of 37 products
  • The customer was thus given detailed retail price recommendations as well as the corresponding expected market shares for the existing product portfolio and the prospective new products

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